Lech Poznan 1-3 Lechia Gdansk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 31 Jan 2026

Lech Poznan
1-3 HT 1-1
Lechia Gdansk
📅31/01/2026 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2025/2026

Lech Poznan vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.82
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.33
Over 2.5
59%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.53
No
40%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.75
2-3 Goals
41%
1.92
4-5 Goals
26%
2.69
6+ Goals
12%
6.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.41
1/2
5%
33.0
1/X
4%
13.05
X/1
14%
4.83
X/2
7%
8.51
X/X
9%
6.02
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.55
2/2
15%
5.74
2/X
9%
14.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.55 — our 8% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
51%
+0.3pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.3pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+1.0pp
41%
Under 2.5
39%
+2.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
61%
-2.1pp
60%
BTTS Yes
61%
-0.8pp
40%
BTTS No
39%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lech Poznan v Lechia Gdansk — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -8%
1.78/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.85
+13% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -27%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
377 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 77%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
20.9 Crosses 17.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1

Lech Poznan vs Lechia Gdansk Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lech Poznan
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.92 xG 0.89
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
400 Passes 289
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.07.2025 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 3-4 HT 2-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
09.02.2025 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1-0 HT 1-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
03.08.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 3-1 HT 3-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
03.03.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 5-0 HT 2-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
31.08.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-3 HT 0-2 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
20.02.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1-0 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL

Lech Poznan 1-3 Lechia Gdansk — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lech Poznan
1-3
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
2.65 xG 1.07
72% Ball Possession 28%
28 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 3
587 Passes 186
87% Pass Accuracy 71%
68 Box Touches 16
36 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lech Poznan vs Lechia Gdansk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lechia Gdansk got the better of Lech Poznan 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Lech Poznan at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, Lech Poznan had 72% of the ball to Lechia Gdansk's 28%, shots finished 28-12, expected goals 2.65 to 1.07 — the balance of chances actually favoured Lech Poznan.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Lech Poznan and 1.00 for Lechia Gdansk.

What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Lechia Gdansk?

Lech Poznan 1-3 Lechia Gdansk in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 31/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lech Poznan vs Lechia Gdansk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Lech Poznan 51%, draw 22%, Lechia Gdansk 26%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lech Poznan) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL More Poland - Ekstraklasa
31 Jan 2026
16:45 Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice Analysis →
19:30 Widzew Lodz vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Analysis →