Atlanta United 3-0 Chicago Fire — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 31 Mar 2024

Atlanta United
3-0 HT 1-0
Chicago Fire
📅31/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Atlanta United vs Chicago Fire Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.72
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
22%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.38
Over 2.5
56%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.07
2-3 Goals
38%
1.96
4-5 Goals
26%
2.74
6+ Goals
12%
7.13
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
2.14
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.8
X/1
15%
4.31
X/2
7%
9.56
X/X
9%
6.05
2/1
6%
20.4
2/2
10%
6.41
2/X EV+ ✗
8%
14.25
Value flag · 2/X at 14.25 — our 8% vs market 4.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
55%
-1.0pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.9pp
22%
Away Win
22%
+0.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.2pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atlanta United v Chicago Fire — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 25%
+2% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / +1%
1.97/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.80
+29% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -13%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
410 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 78%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
17.4 Crosses 15.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

Atlanta United vs Chicago Fire Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlanta United
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Chicago Fire
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.62 xG 1.43
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
436 Passes 295
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 29
14 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
21.05.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 3-3 HT 1-1 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
24.04.2023 Atlanta United Atlanta United 2-1 HT 1-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
23.04.2023 Atlanta United Atlanta United 2-1 HT 1-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
31.07.2022 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 0-0 HT 0-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
08.05.2022 Atlanta United Atlanta United 4-1 HT 3-1 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
04.07.2021 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 3-0 HT 2-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD

Atlanta United 3-0 Chicago Fire — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlanta United
3-0
AWAY Chicago Fire
2.73 xG 0.68
51% Ball Possession 49%
21 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
420 Passes 402
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
38 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atlanta United vs Chicago Fire
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlanta United cruised past Chicago Fire 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atlanta United as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Atlanta United had 51% of the ball to Chicago Fire's 49%, shots finished 21-11, expected goals 2.73 to 0.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atlanta United had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Atlanta United and 1.50 for Chicago Fire.

What was the final score of Atlanta United vs Chicago Fire?

Atlanta United 3-0 Chicago Fire in the USA - Major League on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlanta United vs Chicago Fire?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlanta United win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Atlanta United 54%, draw 24%, Chicago Fire 22%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atlanta United), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atlanta United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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