Houston Dynamo 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 31 Mar 2024

📅31/03/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.75
Over 2.5
39%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.99
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.9
6+ Goals
7%
17.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.99 — our 33% vs market 27.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.59
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.3
X/1
15%
4.12
X/2
6%
7.93
X/X
14%
4.18
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
10%
6.51
2/X
6%
15.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-4.9pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.5pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+2.4pp
61%
Under 2.5
53%
+7.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
47%
-7.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.1pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Houston Dynamo EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +5%
1.66/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.75
-8% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +0%
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
460 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 80%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
17.8 Crosses 16.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Houston Dynamo
4W-1D-1L
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.50 xG 1.59
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
302 Passes 396
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
22.06.2023 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 4-1 HT 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
02.04.2023 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 2-1 HT 1-1 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
18.07.2022 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 HT 0-0 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
10.04.2022 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 4-3 HT 2-2 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
25.07.2021 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 HT 1-1 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
17.04.2021 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 2-1 HT 1-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Houston Dynamo
2-1
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
0.80 xG 0.18
81% Ball Possession 19%
15 Total Shots 2
8 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 1
678 Passes 123
91% Pass Accuracy 71%
54 Box Touches 4
39 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Houston Dynamo nicked a narrow win over San Jose Earthquakes 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Houston Dynamo as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Houston Dynamo had 81% of the ball to San Jose Earthquakes's 19%, shots finished 15-2, expected goals 0.80 to 0.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Houston Dynamo had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Houston Dynamo and 1.50 for San Jose Earthquakes.

What was the final score of Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Houston Dynamo 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes in the USA - Major League on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Houston Dynamo win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Houston Dynamo 49%, draw 28%, San Jose Earthquakes 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Houston Dynamo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Houston Dynamo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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