V-Varen Nagasaki 1-1 Tochigi SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 31 Aug 2024

V-Varen Nagasaki
1-1 HT 1-0
Tochigi SC
📅31/08/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Japan - J2 League – 2024

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tochigi SC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.66
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
29%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.47
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.43
6+ Goals
10%
12.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.47 — our 28% vs market 23.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-6.8pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.4pp
29%
Away Win
20%
+8.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.0pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

V-Varen Nagasaki v Tochigi SC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Tochigi SC EU Bookmakers 24%
+4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -9%
2.20/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.35
+29% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
471 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.5

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tochigi SC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Tochigi SC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
579 Passes 251
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.03.2024 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC 1-1 HT 0-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
19.08.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-2 HT 1-0 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC JAP2
12.03.2023 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC 0-0 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
21.09.2022 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-1 HT 0-1 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC JAP2
05.06.2022 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC 2-3 HT 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
13.11.2021 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 3-0 HT 2-0 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC JAP2

V-Varen Nagasaki 1-1 Tochigi SC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
1-1
AWAY Tochigi SC
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 7
334 Passes 402
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
8 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tochigi SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki and Tochigi SC shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was V-Varen Nagasaki at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 45% of the ball to Tochigi SC's 55%, shots finished 13-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 1.00 for Tochigi SC.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tochigi SC?

V-Varen Nagasaki 1-1 Tochigi SC in the Japan - J2 League on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tochigi SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 49%, draw 22%, Tochigi SC 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) ✓ Under 2.5
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