Ilves Tampere 2-1 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 31 Aug 2025

📅31/08/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
73%
1.25
Draw
16%
5.71
Away
11%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.98
Over 2.5
61%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
7.34
2-3 Goals
36%
2.26
4-5 Goals
27%
2.43
6+ Goals
14%
4.53
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.35
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
4%
21.95
X/1 EV+ ✓
31%
3.97
X/2
5%
22.35
X/X
9%
10.3
2/1
9%
18.95
2/2
3%
17.7
2/X
3%
26.0
Value flag · X/1 at 3.97 — our 31% vs market 19.5%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
73%
Home Win
76%
-3.2pp
16%
Draw
15%
+1.3pp
11%
Away Win
10%
+1.9pp
39%
Under 2.5
30%
+9.3pp
61%
Over 2.5
70%
-9.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.5pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 12%
-5% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +9%
1.79/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/2.02
-1% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +3%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
431 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 79%
32.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
15.7 Crosses 12.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ilves Tampere
3W-2D-1L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.72 xG 0.95
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
460 Passes 318
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
29 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
27.04.2025 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 3-2 HT 2-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
11.08.2024 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 2-0 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
28.04.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-1 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
27.09.2023 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 2-1 HT 1-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
15.07.2023 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 0-0 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
05.04.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-1 HT 1-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ilves Tampere
2-1
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
2.74 xG 1.32
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
561 Passes 275
89% Pass Accuracy 78%
67 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Ilves Tampere vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ilves Tampere squeezed past IFK Mariehamn 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ilves Tampere as the likeliest winner at 73%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Ilves Tampere had 64% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 36%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 2.74 to 1.32 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Ilves Tampere's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ilves Tampere had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ilves Tampere and 0.83 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of Ilves Tampere vs IFK Mariehamn?

Ilves Tampere 2-1 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 31/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ilves Tampere vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ilves Tampere win the most likely single outcome at about 73%, with the full match-result split Ilves Tampere 73%, draw 16%, IFK Mariehamn 11%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ilves Tampere), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ilves Tampere) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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