Alebrijes de Oaxaca 4-5 Venados — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 31 Aug 2025

📅31/08/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.53
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
36%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.07
Over 2.5
46%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
36%
-0.8pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.3pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-3.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.4pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alebrijes de Oaxaca EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Venados EU Bookmakers 43%
-3% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
1.54/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.16
+19% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +2%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
260 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Venados
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
22.02.2025 Venados Venados 2-1 HT 0-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
09.09.2024 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-0 HT 0-0 Venados Venados MEK2
13.03.2024 Venados Venados 2-1 HT 1-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
06.09.2023 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-1 HT 2-1 Venados Venados MEK2
19.01.2023 Venados Venados 2-1 HT 1-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
08.07.2022 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0-0 HT 0-0 Venados Venados MEK2
POST-MATCH Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Venados
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Venados squeezed past Alebrijes de Oaxaca 5-4 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (35% / 29% / 36%) promised a tight game; Venados found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Venados led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 1.17 for Venados.

What was the final score of Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Venados?

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 4-5 Venados in the Mexico - Primera A on 31/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Venados?

Before kick-off our model rated an Venados win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Alebrijes de Oaxaca 35%, draw 29%, Venados 36%. The final score 4-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Venados), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Venados) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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