Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-0 Lechia Gdansk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 31 Aug 2025

Jagiellonia Bialystok
2-0 HT 2-0
Lechia Gdansk
📅31/08/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2025/2026

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.72
Draw
18%
3.8
Away
21%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.33
Over 2.5
62%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.56
No
42%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.49
2-3 Goals
31%
1.86
4-5 Goals
30%
2.66
6+ Goals
16%
7.06
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.14
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
4%
13.65
X/1
23%
4.42
X/2
7%
9.25
X/X
7%
6.09
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
19.7
2/2
10%
6.56
2/X
6%
14.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.7 — our 7% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
54%
+7.2pp
18%
Draw
23%
-5.4pp
21%
Away Win
23%
-1.9pp
38%
Under 2.5
39%
-0.7pp
62%
Over 2.5
61%
+0.7pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.5pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Jagiellonia Bialystok v Lechia Gdansk — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 26%
-8% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -12%
1.78/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.92
+8% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -26%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
367 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 77%
33.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
21.2 Crosses 17.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Lechia Gdansk Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.73 xG 1.53
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
286 Passes 354
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
33 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
29.03.2025 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1-0 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
21.09.2024 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-2 HT 1-1 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
10.04.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-0 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
17.09.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 2-2 HT 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
11.12.2021 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1-2 HT 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
21.09.2021 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-3 HT 0-2 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POLK

Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-0 Lechia Gdansk — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
2-0
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
0.86 xG 1.21
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 5
320 Passes 278
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Lechia Gdansk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok saw off Lechia Gdansk 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Jagiellonia Bialystok as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Jagiellonia Bialystok had 52% of the ball to Lechia Gdansk's 48%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 0.86 to 1.21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 1.50 for Lechia Gdansk.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Lechia Gdansk?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-0 Lechia Gdansk in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 31/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Lechia Gdansk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 61%, draw 18%, Lechia Gdansk 21%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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