York City 1-0 Gateshead — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 1 Jan 2025

📅01/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.92
Draw
31%
3.54
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.31
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
27%
2.76
6+ Goals
10%
7.77
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.62
1/2
5%
33.0
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.15
X/1
9%
4.75
X/2
11%
7.63
X/X
12%
5.6
2/1
7%
22.1
2/2
12%
5.05
2/X
7%
13.45
Value flag · 1/X at 13.15 — our 12% vs market 4.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
48%
-7.6pp
31%
Draw
25%
+6.1pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.0pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME York City EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Gateshead EU Bookmakers 31%
-10% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +10%
1.54/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.21
-5% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +25%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
340 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 414 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME York City
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Gateshead
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
01.01.2024 York City York City 2-0 HT 1-0 Gateshead Gateshead İBSL
26.12.2023 Gateshead Gateshead 1-1 HT 0-1 York City York City İBSL
02.01.2023 Gateshead Gateshead 2-2 HT 2-1 York City York City İBSL
26.12.2022 York City York City 0-3 HT 0-1 Gateshead Gateshead İBSL
29.01.2022 York City York City 1-1 HT 0-0 Gateshead Gateshead İCON
07.12.2021 Gateshead Gateshead 2-0 HT 1-0 York City York City İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME York City
1-0
AWAY Gateshead
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 3
1 Passes 0
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH York City vs Gateshead
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

York City edged past Gateshead 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 31% / 29%) promised a tight game; York City found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, York City had 58% of the ball to Gateshead's 42%, shots finished 10-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gateshead led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for York City and 1.50 for Gateshead.

What was the final score of York City vs Gateshead?

York City 1-0 Gateshead in the England - National League on 01/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for York City vs Gateshead?

Before kick-off our model rated a York City win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split York City 40%, draw 31%, Gateshead 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (York City) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (York City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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