Bayern Münih 4-3 Holstein Kiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 1 Feb 2025

📅01/02/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.11
Draw
23%
8.78
Away
13%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
1.0
Over 2.5
64%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.13
No
48%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
15.6
2-3 Goals
35%
3.26
4-5 Goals
29%
2.27
6+ Goals
19%
2.31
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.05
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
34.5
X/1
15%
4.57
X/2
5%
34.5
X/X EV+ ✗
9%
24.3
2/1
9%
25.5
2/2
4%
34.5
2/X
8%
34.5
Value flag · X/X at 24.3 — our 9% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
85%
-21.2pp
23%
Draw
8%
+14.6pp
13%
Away Win
6%
+6.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
43%
+9.4pp
48%
BTTS No
57%
-9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 90%
Head to Head
AWAY Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 9%
-4% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
2.81/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.68
+36% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +73% / -3%
66% Ball Possession 34%
20 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
526 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 227 · 73%
42.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
22.1 Crosses 13.2
1.2 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayern Münih
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Holstein Kiel
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.75 xG 0.62
66% Ball Possession 34%
23 Total Shots 6
10 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 2
735 Passes 344
89% Pass Accuracy 78%
48 Box Touches 11
30 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 0
14.09.2024 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 1-6 HT 0-4 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
13.01.2021 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 2-2 HT 1-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern Münih
4-3
AWAY Holstein Kiel
3.44 xG 1.85
71% Ball Possession 29%
29 Total Shots 10
12 Shots on Target 6
12 Corners 1
686 Passes 241
92% Pass Accuracy 81%
53 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bayern Münih vs Holstein Kiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern Münih squeezed past Holstein Kiel 4-3. Half-time: 2-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Bayern Münih as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%) came in.

On the day, Bayern Münih had 71% of the ball to Holstein Kiel's 29%, shots finished 29-10, expected goals 3.44 to 1.85 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bayern Münih's control.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 4.00 goals for Bayern Münih and 1.50 for Holstein Kiel.

What was the final score of Bayern Münih vs Holstein Kiel?

Bayern Münih 4-3 Holstein Kiel in the Germany - Bundesliga on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern Münih vs Holstein Kiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Bayern Münih 64%, draw 23%, Holstein Kiel 13%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayern Münih), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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