Heidenheim 1-2 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 1 Feb 2025

📅01/02/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.87
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
45%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.23
Over 2.5
56%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.39
2-3 Goals
35%
1.87
4-5 Goals
28%
2.8
6+ Goals
12%
7.87
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
6.88
1/2
6%
20.4
1/X
6%
14.9
X/1 EV+ ✗
12%
9.5
X/2
15%
4.45
X/X
15%
5.9
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.15
2/X
7%
13.55
Value flag · X/1 at 9.5 — our 12% vs market 7.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
22%
+5.1pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.0pp
45%
Away Win
54%
-9.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.3pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 58%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -11%
1.18/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/1.15
-32% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -9%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 413 · 82%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
19.2 Crosses 14.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heidenheim
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.73 xG 2.23
35% Ball Possession 65%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
226 Passes 504
73% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 29
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.09.2024 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 4-2 HT 3-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
02.02.2024 Heidenheim Heidenheim 0-0 HT 0-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
01.09.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-2 HT 2-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
19.07.2014 Heidenheim Heidenheim 3-4 HT 2-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heidenheim
1-2
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
0.58 xG 2.37
36% Ball Possession 64%
11 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
238 Passes 527
73% Pass Accuracy 88%
15 Box Touches 39
19 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund edged past Heidenheim 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Heidenheim had 36% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 64%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 0.58 to 2.37 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Borussia Dortmund's control.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Heidenheim and 2.50 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?

Heidenheim 1-2 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated an Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Heidenheim 27%, draw 27%, Borussia Dortmund 45%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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