Connahs Quay 1-0 Newtown — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 1 Feb 2025

📅01/02/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.53
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.76
No
55%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.71
2-3 Goals
35%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
2.98
6+ Goals
12%
9.63
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.71 — our 32% vs market 20.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
61%
-10.3pp
27%
Draw
22%
+5.6pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+4.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.1pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Newtown EU Bookmakers 21%
+1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +14%
1.85/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.51
-9% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +24%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
327 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Connahs Quay
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Newtown
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.11.2024 Newtown Newtown 0-3 HT 0-1 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
24.09.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-1 HT 1-1 Newtown Newtown GAL
29.03.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 0-0 HT 0-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
10.02.2024 Newtown Newtown 2-3 HT 1-2 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
26.12.2023 Newtown Newtown 1-2 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
29.08.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 3-1 HT 1-1 Newtown Newtown GAL
POST-MATCH Connahs Quay vs Newtown
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Connahs Quay nicked a narrow win over Newtown 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Connahs Quay as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Connahs Quay had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Connahs Quay and 0.83 for Newtown.

What was the final score of Connahs Quay vs Newtown?

Connahs Quay 1-0 Newtown in the Wales - Premier League on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Connahs Quay vs Newtown?

Before kick-off our model rated a Connahs Quay win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Connahs Quay 50%, draw 27%, Newtown 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Connahs Quay), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Connahs Quay) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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