Ayr United 4-1 Airdrieonians — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Championship, 1 Mar 2025

📅01/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.49
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.55
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
26%
3.08
6+ Goals
10%
10.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.86
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.55
X/1
16%
3.9
X/2
9%
11.85
X/X
11%
6.0
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.7
2/2
8%
9.8
2/X
6%
18.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.7 — our 8% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
63%
-8.6pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.0pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+6.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.2pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ayr United EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Airdrieonians EU Bookmakers 20%
+6% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -17%
1.77/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.76
-8% / +91% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
302 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 182 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
5.0 Crosses 8.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ayr United
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Airdrieonians
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
26.10.2024 Airdrieonians Airdrieonians 0-1 HT 0-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
09.08.2024 Ayr United Ayr United 5-0 HT 2-0 Airdrieonians Airdrieonians İKCL
29.03.2024 Ayr United Ayr United 2-1 HT 0-1 Airdrieonians Airdrieonians İKCL
17.02.2024 Airdrieonians Airdrieonians 2-3 HT 1-1 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
16.12.2023 Ayr United Ayr United 1-0 HT 1-0 Airdrieonians Airdrieonians İKCL
07.10.2023 Airdrieonians Airdrieonians 1-2 HT 0-1 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
POST-MATCH Ayr United vs Airdrieonians
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ayr United ran out comfortable winners over Airdrieonians 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ayr United as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ayr United had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Ayr United and 0.67 for Airdrieonians.

What was the final score of Ayr United vs Airdrieonians?

Ayr United 4-1 Airdrieonians in the Scotland - Championship on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ayr United vs Airdrieonians?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ayr United win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Ayr United 54%, draw 23%, Airdrieonians 23%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ayr United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ayr United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İKCL More Scotland - Championship
1 Mar 2025
18:00 Hamilton vs Falkirk Analysis →
18:00 Raith Rovers vs Queens Park Analysis →
18:00 Dunfermline Athletic vs Greenock Morton Analysis →