Pisa 4-3 Palermo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 1 Apr 2024

Pisa
4-3 HT 0-2
Palermo
📅01/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.43
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.47
6+ Goals
11%
13.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.15
1/2
7%
32.5
1/X
7%
12.35
X/1
9%
5.07
X/2
10%
6.53
X/X
11%
4.49
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
15%
4.51
2/X
9%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.3pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.4pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.2pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pisa EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Palermo EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +4%
1.27/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.41
+1% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -31%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
291 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 75%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
21.1 Crosses 19.1
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pisa
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Palermo
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.07 xG 1.55
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
306 Passes 246
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 25
23 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
16.12.2023 Palermo Palermo 3-2 HT 2-0 Pisa Pisa İTB
04.03.2023 Pisa Pisa 1-1 HT 0-1 Palermo Palermo İTB
15.10.2022 Palermo Palermo 3-3 HT 2-1 Pisa Pisa İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pisa
4-3
AWAY Palermo
2.38 xG 1.23
69% Ball Possession 31%
22 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 1
497 Passes 207
89% Pass Accuracy 79%
39 Box Touches 13
36 Crosses 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pisa vs Palermo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pisa edged past Palermo 4-3. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Pisa as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Pisa had 69% of the ball to Palermo's 31%, shots finished 22-6, expected goals 2.38 to 1.23.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Palermo led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Pisa and 2.33 for Palermo.

What was the final score of Pisa vs Palermo?

Pisa 4-3 Palermo in the Italy - Serie B on 01/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pisa vs Palermo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pisa win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Pisa 41%, draw 26%, Palermo 32%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pisa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pisa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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