Spezia vs Ascoli Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Spezia v Ascoli — Team-Based Signals
Spezia vs Ascoli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-2
HT 0-1
Spezia
İTB
3-1
HT 0-1
Ascoli
İTB
3-0
HT 2-0
Spezia
İTB
3-2
HT 0-2
Ascoli
İTB
3-1
HT 1-0
Spezia
İTB
1-1
HT 0-0
Ascoli
İTB
Spezia 2-1 Ascoli — Actual Match Statistics
Spezia edged past Ascoli 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Spezia as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Spezia had 52% of the ball to Ascoli's 48%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 2.04 to 0.36 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Spezia's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spezia had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Spezia and 1.83 for Ascoli.
What was the final score of Spezia vs Ascoli?
Spezia 2-1 Ascoli in the Italy - Serie B on 01/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Spezia vs Ascoli?
Before kick-off our model rated a Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Spezia 43%, draw 26%, Ascoli 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spezia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.