Spezia 2-1 Ascoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 1 Apr 2024

📅01/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
32%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.52
Over 2.5
43%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.16
No
54%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.26
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
5.45
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.76
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.45
X/1
13%
3.99
X/2
11%
7.45
X/X
12%
3.78
2/1
9%
31.5
2/2
14%
6.57
2/X
6%
16.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-5.4pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.9pp
32%
Away Win
24%
+8.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-5.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
38%
+5.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
42%
+3.9pp
54%
BTTS No
58%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spezia EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Ascoli EU Bookmakers 27%
-4% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -19%
1.36/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.46
-23% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
389 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 75%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
25.6 Crosses 16.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spezia
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Ascoli
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
2.04 xG 1.30
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
430 Passes 233
83% Pass Accuracy 70%
28 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
09.12.2023 Ascoli Ascoli 1-2 HT 0-1 Spezia Spezia İTB
15.02.2020 Spezia Spezia 3-1 HT 0-1 Ascoli Ascoli İTB
24.09.2019 Ascoli Ascoli 3-0 HT 2-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
14.04.2019 Spezia Spezia 3-2 HT 0-2 Ascoli Ascoli İTB
01.12.2018 Ascoli Ascoli 3-1 HT 1-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
24.03.2018 Spezia Spezia 1-1 HT 0-0 Ascoli Ascoli İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spezia
2-1
AWAY Ascoli
2.04 xG 0.36
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
303 Passes 290
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 7
18 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Spezia vs Ascoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spezia edged past Ascoli 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Spezia as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Spezia had 52% of the ball to Ascoli's 48%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 2.04 to 0.36 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Spezia's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spezia had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Spezia and 1.83 for Ascoli.

What was the final score of Spezia vs Ascoli?

Spezia 2-1 Ascoli in the Italy - Serie B on 01/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spezia vs Ascoli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Spezia 43%, draw 26%, Ascoli 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spezia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Spezia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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