Catanzaro 3-2 Venezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 1 May 2024

Catanzaro
3-2 HT 1-1
Venezia
📅01/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2023/2024

Catanzaro vs Venezia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.94
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
37%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.07
Over 2.5
46%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.6
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.0
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.1
6+ Goals
9%
10.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.0 — our 28% vs market 19.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
25%
4.6
1/2
5%
24.0
1/X
10%
12.7
X/1
8%
6.89
X/2
14%
4.99
X/X
6%
4.96
2/1
5%
31.5
2/2
18%
2.92
2/X
9%
12.4
Value flag · 1/1 at 4.6 — our 25% vs market 17.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
30%
+7.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
37%
Away Win
43%
-6.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.4pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Catanzaro v Venezia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Catanzaro EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Venezia EU Bookmakers 48%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
0.65/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.33
+13% / +73% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -34%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
286 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 75%
15.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
14.4 Crosses 22.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Catanzaro vs Venezia Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Catanzaro
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Venezia
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.38 xG 2.50
72% Ball Possession 28%
6 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 1
667 Passes 206
89% Pass Accuracy 69%
18 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.11.2023 Venezia Venezia 2-1 HT 2-1 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
09.04.2005 Venezia Venezia 2-0 HT 1-0 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
30.10.2004 Catanzaro Catanzaro 0-0 HT 0-0 Venezia Venezia İTB

Catanzaro 3-2 Venezia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Catanzaro
3-2
AWAY Venezia
1.74 xG 2.05
67% Ball Possession 33%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 1
460 Passes 184
87% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Catanzaro vs Venezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Catanzaro edged past Venezia 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 37%) promised a tight game; Catanzaro found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Catanzaro had 67% of the ball to Venezia's 33%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.74 to 2.05.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Venezia led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Catanzaro and 1.33 for Venezia.

What was the final score of Catanzaro vs Venezia?

Catanzaro 3-2 Venezia in the Italy - Serie B on 01/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Catanzaro vs Venezia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Catanzaro win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Catanzaro 38%, draw 25%, Venezia 37%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Catanzaro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Catanzaro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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