Spezia 1-0 Palermo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 1 May 2024

Spezia
1-0 HT 1-0
Palermo
📅01/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Italy - Serie B – 2023/2024

Spezia vs Palermo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.9
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
33%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.32
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.56
6+ Goals
10%
14.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 27% vs market 24.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.58
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.65
X/1
14%
4.36
X/2
8%
7.59
X/X
8%
4.74
2/1
9%
24.45
2/2
18%
5.69
2/X
10%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-7.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
33%
Away Win
25%
+7.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.9pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Spezia v Palermo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spezia EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Palermo EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +4%
1.41/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.50
-20% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / -18%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
340 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 75%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
25.0 Crosses 17.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2

Spezia vs Palermo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spezia
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Palermo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.24 xG 1.29
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
320 Passes 353
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
23.10.2023 Palermo Palermo 2-2 HT 0-1 Spezia Spezia İTB
01.05.2019 Palermo Palermo 2-2 HT 2-2 Spezia Spezia İTB
23.12.2018 Spezia Spezia 1-1 HT 1-1 Palermo Palermo İTB
20.01.2018 Spezia Spezia 0-0 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTB
26.08.2017 Palermo Palermo 2-0 HT 1-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
30.11.2016 Palermo Palermo 0-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTK

Spezia 1-0 Palermo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spezia
1-0
AWAY Palermo
0.77 xG 0.56
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 3
204 Passes 334
70% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Spezia vs Palermo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spezia nicked a narrow win over Palermo 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Spezia as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Spezia had 40% of the ball to Palermo's 60%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 0.77 to 0.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palermo led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Spezia and 1.17 for Palermo.

What was the final score of Spezia vs Palermo?

Spezia 1-0 Palermo in the Italy - Serie B on 01/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spezia vs Palermo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Spezia 41%, draw 26%, Palermo 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spezia), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Spezia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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