Südtirol 4-3 Ternana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 1 May 2024

📅01/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
34%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.62
Over 2.5
42%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.99
No
57%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.53
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.67
6+ Goals
8%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.71
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.7
X/1
15%
4.11
X/2
10%
7.47
X/X
11%
4.06
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2 EV+ ✗
18%
6.24
2/X
8%
15.35
Value flag · 2/2 at 6.24 — our 18% vs market 11.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-7.3pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.5pp
34%
Away Win
24%
+9.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
58%
-0.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
42%
+0.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
46%
-3.1pp
57%
BTTS No
54%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Südtirol EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Ternana EU Bookmakers 28%
+37% / +37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -2%
1.06/0.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.65
-10% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -22%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
337 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 74%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
23.3 Crosses 21.9
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Südtirol
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Ternana
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.02 xG 0.77
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
300 Passes 379
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 17
27 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 3
23.09.2023 Ternana Ternana 1-1 HT 1-0 Südtirol Südtirol İTB
06.05.2023 Ternana Ternana 0-1 HT 0-1 Südtirol Südtirol İTB
11.12.2022 Südtirol Südtirol 0-0 HT 0-0 Ternana Ternana İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Südtirol
4-3
AWAY Ternana
2.64 xG 1.32
66% Ball Possession 34%
21 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
479 Passes 204
90% Pass Accuracy 77%
37 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Südtirol vs Ternana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Südtirol edged past Ternana 4-3. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Südtirol as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Südtirol had 66% of the ball to Ternana's 34%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 2.64 to 1.32 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Südtirol's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Südtirol had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Südtirol and 0.33 for Ternana.

What was the final score of Südtirol vs Ternana?

Südtirol 4-3 Ternana in the Italy - Serie B on 01/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Südtirol vs Ternana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Südtirol win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Südtirol 41%, draw 25%, Ternana 34%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Südtirol) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Südtirol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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