Empoli vs Avellino Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Empoli v Avellino — Team-Based Signals
Empoli vs Avellino Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-0
Avellino
İTB
3-2
HT 0-1
Empoli
İTB
0-1
HT 0-0
Avellino
İTB
1-0
HT 1-0
Empoli
İTB
0-1
HT 0-0
Empoli
İTB
Empoli 1-0 Avellino — Actual Match Statistics
Empoli nicked a narrow win over Avellino 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Empoli as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.
On the day, Empoli had 43% of the ball to Avellino's 57%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 2.35 to 0.19 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Empoli's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Avellino led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Empoli and 1.00 for Avellino.
What was the final score of Empoli vs Avellino?
Empoli 1-0 Avellino in the Italy - Serie B on 01/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Empoli vs Avellino?
Before kick-off our model rated a Empoli win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Empoli 50%, draw 28%, Avellino 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Empoli), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.