Palermo 3-2 Catanzaro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 1 May 2026

📅01/05/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.82
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
22%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.74
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
2.96
6+ Goals
10%
9.49
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.74 — our 29% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
51%
+0.6pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.1pp
22%
Away Win
24%
-2.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.2pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palermo EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Catanzaro EU Bookmakers 28%
-2% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -4%
1.76/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.32
+1% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
346 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 81%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
23.2 Crosses 17.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palermo
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Catanzaro
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.40 xG 1.37
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
304 Passes 398
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
31 Box Touches 18
32 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.10.2025 Catanzaro Catanzaro 1-0 HT 1-0 Palermo Palermo İTB
27.04.2025 Catanzaro Catanzaro 1-3 HT 0-2 Palermo Palermo İTB
15.12.2024 Palermo Palermo 1-2 HT 1-1 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
26.01.2024 Catanzaro Catanzaro 1-1 HT 1-0 Palermo Palermo İTB
01.12.2023 Palermo Palermo 1-2 HT 0-1 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
24.01.2022 Catanzaro Catanzaro 0-0 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palermo
3-2
AWAY Catanzaro
2.24 xG 1.53
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 3
243 Passes 398
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 13
9 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Palermo vs Catanzaro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palermo squeezed past Catanzaro 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Palermo as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Palermo had 41% of the ball to Catanzaro's 59%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 2.24 to 1.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Catanzaro led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Palermo and 1.17 for Catanzaro.

What was the final score of Palermo vs Catanzaro?

Palermo 3-2 Catanzaro in the Italy - Serie B on 01/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palermo vs Catanzaro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palermo win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Palermo 52%, draw 27%, Catanzaro 22%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palermo) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Palermo) ✗ Under 2.5
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