Orlando City 1-3 Chicago Fire — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 1 Jun 2025

📅01/06/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
22%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.29
Over 2.5
57%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.51
2-3 Goals
36%
1.89
4-5 Goals
27%
2.74
6+ Goals
14%
7.39
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
2.13
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
5%
13.7
X/1
8%
4.58
X/2
6%
9.9
X/X
14%
6.4
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.75
2/2
10%
6.89
2/X
5%
14.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.75 — our 10% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
56%
-2.8pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.3pp
22%
Away Win
21%
+0.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
40%
+3.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
60%
-3.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.1pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orlando City EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 25%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +8%
1.82/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.86
+10% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -16%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
380 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 81%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
17.8 Crosses 15.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orlando City
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Chicago Fire
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.07 xG 1.64
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
386 Passes 377
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
28 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.05.2025 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 0-0 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
23.06.2024 Orlando City Orlando City 4-2 HT 3-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
30.05.2024 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-1 HT 0-1 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
21.08.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-3 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
02.07.2023 Orlando City Orlando City 3-1 HT 1-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
09.04.2022 Orlando City Orlando City 1-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orlando City
1-3
AWAY Chicago Fire
57% Ball Possession 43%
26 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
13 Corners 1
438 Passes 347
89% Pass Accuracy 86%
POST-MATCH Orlando City vs Chicago Fire
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chicago Fire beat Orlando City 3-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Orlando City at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Orlando City had 57% of the ball to Chicago Fire's 43%, shots finished 26-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orlando City had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Orlando City and 0.83 for Chicago Fire.

What was the final score of Orlando City vs Chicago Fire?

Orlando City 1-3 Chicago Fire in the USA - Major League on 01/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orlando City vs Chicago Fire?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orlando City win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Orlando City 53%, draw 25%, Chicago Fire 22%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Orlando City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Orlando City) ✓ Over 2.5
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