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Carmarthen Town vs Caerau (Ely) Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Carmarthen Town v Caerau (Ely) — Team-Based Signals
Carmarthen Town vs Caerau (Ely) Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
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2-4
HT 0-3
Carmarthen Town
GALFAW
Carmarthen Town edged past Caerau (Ely) 4-3. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Caerau (Ely) at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Carmarthen Town had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Carmarthen Town and 1.50 for Caerau (Ely).
What was the final score of Carmarthen Town vs Caerau (Ely)?
Carmarthen Town 4-3 Caerau (Ely) in the Wales - FAW Championship on 01/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Carmarthen Town vs Caerau (Ely)?
Before kick-off our model rated an Caerau (Ely) win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Carmarthen Town 31%, draw 28%, Caerau (Ely) 41%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Caerau (Ely)), Under 2.5 went the other way.