Puebla 1-1 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 1 Aug 2026

📅01/08/2026 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
5.09
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
49%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.03
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
2.83
6+ Goals
10%
8.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.03 — our 26% vs market 18.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
6%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
27%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
17%
+10.7pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.4pp
49%
Away Win
62%
-13.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.1pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puebla EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 66%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
0.99/1.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/0.61
+9% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +22%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
271 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 441 · 85%
14.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.4
14.5 Crosses 22.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puebla
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Guadalajara
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.98 xG 1.28
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
322 Passes 402
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
19.04.2026 Guadalajara Guadalajara 5-0 HT 2-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
28.09.2025 Puebla Puebla 0-2 HT 0-2 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
16.04.2025 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
26.10.2024 Puebla Puebla 1-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
07.04.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 3-2 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
21.10.2023 Puebla Puebla 0-2 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puebla
1-1
AWAY Guadalajara
0.69 xG 1.97
7 Total Shots 24
3 Shots on Target 9
1 Corners 7
287 Passes 579
4 Box Touches 38
6 Crosses 23
POST-MATCH Puebla vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puebla and Guadalajara couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Guadalajara at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, shots finished 7-24, expected goals 0.69 to 1.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Puebla and 2.17 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Puebla vs Guadalajara?

Puebla 1-1 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 01/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puebla vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Puebla 27%, draw 24%, Guadalajara 49%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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