Guadalajara 5-0 Puebla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 19 Apr 2026

📅19/04/2026 · 🕒04:07 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.27
Draw
21%
5.15
Away
11%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
Over 2.5
47%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.51
2-3 Goals
36%
1.86
4-5 Goals
24%
2.67
6+ Goals
10%
7.11
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.51 — our 30% vs market 16.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
29%
X/2
3%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
4%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
74%
-6.4pp
22%
Draw
16%
+5.2pp
11%
Away Win
9%
+1.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.8pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Puebla EU Bookmakers 12%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -10%
2.16/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.80
+9% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +9%
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
429 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 223 · 73%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.3
20.9 Crosses 14.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Puebla
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.40 xG 1.13
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
371 Passes 318
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.09.2025 Puebla Puebla 0-2 HT 0-2 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
16.04.2025 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
26.10.2024 Puebla Puebla 1-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
07.04.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 3-2 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
21.10.2023 Puebla Puebla 0-2 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
11.03.2023 Puebla Puebla 1-0 HT 1-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
5-0
AWAY Puebla
1.10 xG 0.35
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 0
591 Passes 272
91% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 7
27 Crosses 1
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs Puebla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara swept aside Puebla 5-0. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Guadalajara as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Guadalajara had 66% of the ball to Puebla's 34%, shots finished 16-4, expected goals 1.10 to 0.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Guadalajara and 0.67 for Puebla.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Puebla?

Guadalajara 5-0 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 19/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Puebla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 68%, draw 22%, Puebla 11%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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