Monterrey 1-3 Pachuca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 19 Apr 2026

📅19/04/2026 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
37%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.15
Over 2.5
45%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.55
No
50%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.92
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
19%
2.86
6+ Goals
10%
8.76
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.92 — our 30% vs market 19.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-2.6pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.4pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+2.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
43%
+12.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
57%
-12.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.7pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterrey EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Pachuca EU Bookmakers 38%
+2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +3%
1.30/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.24
-19% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -3%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
309 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 80%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
18.4 Crosses 15.2
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterrey
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Pachuca
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.26 xG 1.41
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
391 Passes 335
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.07.2025 Pachuca Pachuca 3-0 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
28.04.2025 Monterrey Monterrey 1-2 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
26.01.2025 Monterrey Monterrey 2-3 HT 1-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
08.07.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 0-1 HT 0-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
11.02.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 3-2 HT 2-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
05.11.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 0-2 HT 0-2 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterrey
1-3
AWAY Pachuca
1.77 xG 1.64
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
411 Passes 317
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Monterrey vs Pachuca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pachuca beat Monterrey 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 37%) promised a tight game; Pachuca found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Monterrey had 56% of the ball to Pachuca's 44%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.77 to 1.64.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Monterrey and 1.67 for Pachuca.

What was the final score of Monterrey vs Pachuca?

Monterrey 1-3 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 19/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterrey vs Pachuca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Monterrey 38%, draw 25%, Pachuca 37%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Monterrey) ✗ Under 2.5
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