Orange County SC 2-3 Las Vegas Lights — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 1 Sep 2024

Orange County SC
2-3 HT 2-1
Las Vegas Lights
📅01/09/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
USL Championship – 2024

Orange County SC vs Las Vegas Lights Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.46
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
40%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.7
No
55%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.33
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.55
6+ Goals
9%
14.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.33 — our 27% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
5%
X/X
19%
2/1
6%
2/2
28%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
37%
-6.8pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.3pp
40%
Away Win
36%
+3.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
55%
-9.7pp
55%
BTTS No
45%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Orange County SC v Las Vegas Lights — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Las Vegas Lights EU Bookmakers 39%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.14/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.68
-4% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +32%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
341 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 76%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
17.4 Crosses 16.1
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.7

Orange County SC vs Las Vegas Lights Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orange County SC
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.08 xG 1.03
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
331 Passes 289
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.09.2023 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 1-5 HT 0-3 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
26.03.2023 Orange County SC Orange County SC 2-2 HT 0-1 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
18.08.2022 Orange County SC Orange County SC 1-1 HT 1-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
12.06.2022 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 3-0 HT 1-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
24.10.2021 Orange County SC Orange County SC 2-1 HT 0-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
12.09.2021 Orange County SC Orange County SC 3-0 HT 1-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP

Orange County SC 2-3 Las Vegas Lights — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orange County SC
2-3
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
1.72 xG 1.83
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 7
286 Passes 503
83% Pass Accuracy 91%
17 Box Touches 23
7 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Orange County SC vs Las Vegas Lights
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Las Vegas Lights squeezed past Orange County SC 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (30% / 30% / 40%) promised a tight game; Las Vegas Lights found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Orange County SC had 38% of the ball to Las Vegas Lights's 62%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 1.72 to 1.83.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orange County SC had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Orange County SC and 1.33 for Las Vegas Lights.

What was the final score of Orange County SC vs Las Vegas Lights?

Orange County SC 2-3 Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orange County SC vs Las Vegas Lights?

Before kick-off our model rated an Las Vegas Lights win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Orange County SC 30%, draw 30%, Las Vegas Lights 40%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Las Vegas Lights) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Las Vegas Lights) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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