Port Vale 1-1 Colchester — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 1 Oct 2024

📅01/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.8
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.74
Over 2.5
49%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.89
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
4.04
6+ Goals
10%
18.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.39
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
14.2
X/1
18%
4.06
X/2
6%
8.79
X/X
10%
4.37
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
12%
7.13
2/X
8%
15.05
Value flag · 1/X at 14.2 — our 10% vs market 4.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-4.7pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.2pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+3.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
54%
-3.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
46%
+3.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.3pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Port Vale EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Colchester EU Bookmakers 24%
+1% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
1.31/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.57
+7% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
297 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 68%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
21.9 Crosses 15.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Port Vale
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Colchester
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.11 xG 0.88
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
252 Passes 252
67% Pass Accuracy 66%
23 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.03.2022 Colchester Colchester 1-0 HT 0-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
23.10.2021 Port Vale Port Vale 3-0 HT 2-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
20.03.2021 Colchester Colchester 0-1 HT 0-1 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
12.12.2020 Port Vale Port Vale 1-1 HT 0-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
15.02.2020 Port Vale Port Vale 3-0 HT 1-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
03.08.2019 Colchester Colchester 1-1 HT 1-1 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Port Vale
1-1
AWAY Colchester
0.80 xG 0.81
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
398 Passes 175
81% Pass Accuracy 63%
28 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Port Vale vs Colchester
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Port Vale and Colchester shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Port Vale at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Port Vale had 63% of the ball to Colchester's 37%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 0.80 to 0.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Port Vale had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Port Vale and 0.50 for Colchester.

What was the final score of Port Vale vs Colchester?

Port Vale 1-1 Colchester in the England - 2nd Division on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Port Vale vs Colchester?

Before kick-off our model rated a Port Vale win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Port Vale 47%, draw 28%, Colchester 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Port Vale), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Port Vale) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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