01/10/2024
·
21:45
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
2-0
Horsham vs Margate Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2-3
40%
4-5
23%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 53% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
Home Win
Under 2.5
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
62%
26%
Draw
22%
22%
Away Win
16%
52%
Under 2.5
47%
48%
Over 2.5
53%
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
53%
BTTS No
50%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Horsham v Margate — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Horsham
EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY
Margate
EU Bookmakers 19%
+26% /
+26%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+32% /
+32%
2.67/0.67
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
2.85/0.87
+22%
/
+68%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+150%
/
+144%
58%
Ball Possession
42%
15
Total Shots
8
6
Shots on Target
3
7
Corners
3
417 · 83%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
240 · 72%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
2.3
Horsham vs Margate Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Horsham
0W-1D-0L
AWAY
Margate
1.00
Avg Goals (FT)
1.00
The Meetings
POST-MATCH
Horsham vs Margate
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Horsham beat Margate 2-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Horsham as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
What was the final score of Horsham vs Margate?
Horsham 2-0 Margate in the England - FA Cup on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Horsham vs Margate?
Before kick-off our model rated a Horsham win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Horsham 52%, draw 26%, Margate 22%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Horsham), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Horsham)
✓ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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1 Oct 2024