Mainz 05 1-1 Werder Bremen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 1 Nov 2025

Mainz 05
1-1 HT 1-0
Werder Bremen
📅01/11/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.33
Over 2.5
58%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.5
No
40%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.71
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
27%
2.73
6+ Goals
14%
7.22
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.45
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
32.5
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
17%
4.85
X/2
9%
8.27
X/X
10%
5.82
2/1
7%
20.7
2/2
13%
5.57
2/X
7%
13.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 32.5 — our 9% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-3.8pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.0pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+5.8pp
42%
Under 2.5
39%
+3.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
61%
-3.2pp
60%
BTTS Yes
62%
-2.2pp
40%
BTTS No
38%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +14%
1.52/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.59
-12% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / -23%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
371 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 74%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
22.3 Crosses 16.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Werder Bremen
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.12 xG 1.72
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
332 Passes 307
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
32 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
31.01.2025 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-0 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
15.09.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-2 HT 1-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
03.02.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-1 HT 0-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
02.09.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 4-0 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
08.04.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 2-2 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
15.10.2022 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-2 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1

Mainz 05 1-1 Werder Bremen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05
1-1
AWAY Werder Bremen
1.42 xG 1.04
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 0
311 Passes 376
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
30 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Mainz 05 at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (60%) landed while over 2.5 goals (58%) missed.

On the day, Mainz 05 had 47% of the ball to Werder Bremen's 53%, shots finished 10-5, expected goals 1.42 to 1.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Werder Bremen led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Mainz 05 and 1.67 for Werder Bremen.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?

Mainz 05 1-1 Werder Bremen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 01/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 46%, draw 22%, Werder Bremen 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Mainz 05), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mainz 05) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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