Gamba Osaka 1-0 Albirex Niigata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 2 Mar 2024

Gamba Osaka
1-0 HT 0-0
Albirex Niigata
📅02/03/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Gamba Osaka vs Albirex Niigata Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
39%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.6
Over 2.5
41%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.95
No
57%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.51
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.72
6+ Goals
8%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.86
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
13%
5.22
X/2
15%
5.45
X/X
17%
3.86
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
16%
4.09
2/X
5%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
37%
-4.2pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.6pp
39%
Away Win
34%
+5.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.7pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.9pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gamba Osaka v Albirex Niigata — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 37%
-5% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +5%
1.30/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.13
-7% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +26%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
347 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 79%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
17.4 Crosses 17.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7

Gamba Osaka vs Albirex Niigata Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gamba Osaka
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Albirex Niigata
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.82 xG 1.14
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
369 Passes 402
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
17.09.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-1 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
28.05.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-3 HT 0-2 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
14.10.2017 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-1 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
01.04.2017 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-3 HT 1-1 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
29.10.2016 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 3-1 HT 1-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
08.05.2016 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-0 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP

Gamba Osaka 1-0 Albirex Niigata — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gamba Osaka
1-0
AWAY Albirex Niigata
1.76 xG 0.57
42% Ball Possession 58%
18 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 2
330 Passes 495
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
29 Box Touches 8
19 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Gamba Osaka vs Albirex Niigata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gamba Osaka squeezed past Albirex Niigata 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 28% / 39% — and on the day Gamba Osaka made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Gamba Osaka had 42% of the ball to Albirex Niigata's 58%, shots finished 18-4, expected goals 1.76 to 0.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gamba Osaka had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Gamba Osaka and 1.00 for Albirex Niigata.

What was the final score of Gamba Osaka vs Albirex Niigata?

Gamba Osaka 1-0 Albirex Niigata in the Japan - J1 League on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gamba Osaka vs Albirex Niigata?

Before kick-off our model rated an Albirex Niigata win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Gamba Osaka 33%, draw 28%, Albirex Niigata 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Albirex Niigata) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Albirex Niigata) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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