Kyoto Sanga 1-2 Shonan Bellmare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.12
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.64
Over 2.5
47%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.61
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.51
6+ Goals
9%
24.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.17
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.0
X/1
10%
4.57
X/2
12%
6.3
X/X
12%
4.06
2/1
10%
29.5
2/2
13%
4.96
2/X
9%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
43%
-6.4pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.5pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+4.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
57%
-3.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
43%
+3.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.8pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Shonan Bellmare EU Bookmakers 32%
-19% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
1.43/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.34
-1% / -45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
317 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 74%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
22.7 Crosses 18.3
0.5 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kyoto Sanga
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.88 xG 1.52
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
246 Passes 240
67% Pass Accuracy 68%
14 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
21.10.2023 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-1 HT 0-1 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
12.03.2023 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 0-2 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
26.06.2022 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-1 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
12.03.2022 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 1-1 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
23.09.2014 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 2-2 HT 0-1 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP2
29.04.2014 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 3-0 HT 2-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kyoto Sanga
1-2
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
1.02 xG 2.24
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 8
252 Passes 281
66% Pass Accuracy 70%
24 Box Touches 21
26 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kyoto Sanga vs Shonan Bellmare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shonan Bellmare squeezed past Kyoto Sanga 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 33%) promised a tight game; Shonan Bellmare found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Kyoto Sanga had 49% of the ball to Shonan Bellmare's 51%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.02 to 2.24 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Shonan Bellmare's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shonan Bellmare led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Kyoto Sanga and 1.33 for Shonan Bellmare.

What was the final score of Kyoto Sanga vs Shonan Bellmare?

Kyoto Sanga 1-2 Shonan Bellmare in the Japan - J1 League on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kyoto Sanga vs Shonan Bellmare?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kyoto Sanga win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Kyoto Sanga 37%, draw 30%, Shonan Bellmare 33%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Kyoto Sanga), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kyoto Sanga) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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