Nagoya Grampus 0-1 Machida Zelvia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
34%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.62
Over 2.5
43%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.57
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.58
6+ Goals
9%
24.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.1
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.9
X/1
14%
4.53
X/2
10%
6.53
X/X
13%
3.98
2/1
10%
30.0
2/2
18%
5.19
2/X
6%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
43%
-5.0pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.9pp
34%
Away Win
28%
+5.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
58%
-1.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
42%
+1.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.3pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-9% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
306 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 79%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.0 Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nagoya Grampus
0-1
AWAY Machida Zelvia
0.27 xG 1.59
56% Ball Possession 44%
5 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 6
313 Passes 220
75% Pass Accuracy 70%
11 Box Touches 33
15 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia edged past Nagoya Grampus 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 28% / 34% — and on the day Machida Zelvia made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Nagoya Grampus had 56% of the ball to Machida Zelvia's 44%, shots finished 5-14, expected goals 0.27 to 1.59 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Machida Zelvia's control.

What was the final score of Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia?

Nagoya Grampus 0-1 Machida Zelvia in the Japan - J1 League on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nagoya Grampus win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Nagoya Grampus 38%, draw 28%, Machida Zelvia 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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