Lyon 2-1 Brest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 2 Mar 2025

Lyon
2-1 HT 1-1
Brest
📅02/03/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Lyon vs Brest Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.22
2-3 Goals
43%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
2.86
6+ Goals
11%
8.34
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.19
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.3
X/1
14%
4.48
X/2
12%
9.41
X/X
11%
5.7
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
20.85
2/2
11%
6.86
2/X
10%
14.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.85 — our 10% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-8.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.7pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+7.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.6pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lyon v Brest — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Brest EU Bookmakers 25%
-6% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +14%
1.98/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.46
-1% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +0%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
428 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 78%
32.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
18.8 Crosses 18.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1

Lyon vs Brest Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Brest
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.10 xG 1.39
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
451 Passes 254
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.01.2025 Brest Brest 2-1 HT 2-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
14.04.2024 Lyon Lyon 4-3 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1
23.09.2023 Brest Brest 1-0 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
01.02.2023 Lyon Lyon 0-0 HT 0-0 Brest Brest FR1
28.12.2022 Brest Brest 2-4 HT 1-3 Lyon Lyon FR1
20.04.2022 Brest Brest 2-1 HT 1-0 Lyon Lyon FR1

Lyon 2-1 Brest — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon
2-1
AWAY Brest
1.32 xG 2.00
66% Ball Possession 34%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
545 Passes 228
89% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 35
12 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lyon vs Brest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon squeezed past Brest 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lyon as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Lyon had 66% of the ball to Brest's 34%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 1.32 to 2.00 — the balance of chances actually favoured Brest.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brest led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lyon and 1.67 for Brest.

What was the final score of Lyon vs Brest?

Lyon 2-1 Brest in the France - Ligue 1 on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lyon vs Brest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Lyon 46%, draw 25%, Brest 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lyon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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