Montpellier 0-4 Rennes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 2 Mar 2025

Montpellier
0-4 HT 0-1
Rennes
📅02/03/2025 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Montpellier vs Rennes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.32
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
38%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.86
Over 2.5
53%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.2
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
24%
3.45
6+ Goals
12%
13.55
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.45 — our 24% vs market 22.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
5.67
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
24.7
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
10%
7.58
X/2
13%
4.69
X/X
15%
4.65
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
15%
2.7
2/X
6%
12.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.7 — our 11% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
27%
+8.0pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.1pp
39%
Away Win
46%
-7.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
50%
-2.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
50%
+2.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.1pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Montpellier v Rennes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montpellier EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Rennes EU Bookmakers 50%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -18%
1.30/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.24
-17% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -20%
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
285 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 82%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.6
19.8 Crosses 19.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

Montpellier vs Rennes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montpellier
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Rennes
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.01 xG 1.40
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
289 Passes 416
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.09.2024 Rennes Rennes 3-0 HT 2-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
03.02.2024 Rennes Rennes 2-1 HT 1-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
24.09.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 0-0 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
23.04.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 1-0 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
30.10.2022 Rennes Rennes 3-0 HT 2-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
25.02.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 2-4 HT 2-2 Rennes Rennes FR1

Montpellier 0-4 Rennes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montpellier
0-4
AWAY Rennes
1.59 xG 2.46
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 9
6 Corners 5
260 Passes 360
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 27
33 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Montpellier vs Rennes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rennes cruised past Montpellier 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (35% / 27% / 39%) promised a tight game; Rennes found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Montpellier had 45% of the ball to Rennes's 55%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 1.59 to 2.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rennes led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Montpellier and 2.00 for Rennes.

What was the final score of Montpellier vs Rennes?

Montpellier 0-4 Rennes in the France - Ligue 1 on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montpellier vs Rennes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rennes win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Montpellier 35%, draw 27%, Rennes 39%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rennes), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rennes) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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