Marathon 3-3 Lobos UPNFM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 2 Mar 2025

📅02/03/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.37
Draw
26%
4.49
Away
17%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.06
No
56%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
69%
-11.7pp
26%
Draw
19%
+6.5pp
17%
Away Win
12%
+5.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.4pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marathon EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Lobos UPNFM EU Bookmakers 15%
-4% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
2.12/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/2.52
-4% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -18%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
378 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marathon
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Lobos UPNFM
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
27.10.2024 Marathon Marathon 1-2 HT 1-1 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
18.08.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 2-0 HT 0-0 Marathon Marathon HON
10.03.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 0-1 HT 0-1 Marathon Marathon HON
21.01.2024 Marathon Marathon 3-1 HT 3-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
26.11.2023 Marathon Marathon 3-0 HT 2-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
22.09.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-3 HT 0-2 Marathon Marathon HON
POST-MATCH Marathon vs Lobos UPNFM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marathon and Lobos UPNFM shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Marathon carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marathon had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Marathon and 1.00 for Lobos UPNFM.

What was the final score of Marathon vs Lobos UPNFM?

Marathon 3-3 Lobos UPNFM in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marathon vs Lobos UPNFM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marathon win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Marathon 57%, draw 26%, Lobos UPNFM 17%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Marathon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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