Gamba Osaka 0-1 Machida Zelvia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 2 Apr 2025

📅02/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
38%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.51
Over 2.5
43%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.23
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
5.29
6+ Goals
10%
33.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.66
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
10%
14.8
X/1
9%
5.83
X/2
15%
5.09
X/X
14%
3.72
2/1
8%
35.0
2/2
18%
3.77
2/X
4%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
33%
+1.0pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.1pp
39%
Away Win
37%
+1.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-5.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
38%
+5.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.1pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 40%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +20%
1.19/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/0.68
+2% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +33%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
284 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 78%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
16.8 Crosses 20.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gamba Osaka
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Machida Zelvia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.97 xG 1.92
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
426 Passes 257
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 2
30.06.2024 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-3 HT 1-1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP
24.02.2024 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 1-1 HT 1-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gamba Osaka
0-1
AWAY Machida Zelvia
0.34 xG 1.34
63% Ball Possession 37%
8 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 7
464 Passes 231
80% Pass Accuracy 69%
17 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gamba Osaka vs Machida Zelvia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia edged past Gamba Osaka 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (34% / 28% / 39%) promised a tight game; Machida Zelvia found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Gamba Osaka had 63% of the ball to Machida Zelvia's 37%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 0.34 to 1.34.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Machida Zelvia led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Gamba Osaka and 2.00 for Machida Zelvia.

What was the final score of Gamba Osaka vs Machida Zelvia?

Gamba Osaka 0-1 Machida Zelvia in the Japan - J1 League on 02/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gamba Osaka vs Machida Zelvia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Gamba Osaka 34%, draw 28%, Machida Zelvia 39%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Machida Zelvia), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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