Macarthur 3-2 Newcastle Jets — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 2 Apr 2026

📅02/04/2026 · 🕒11:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
39%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.74
Over 2.5
63%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.39
No
38%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
6.01
2-3 Goals
37%
2.06
4-5 Goals
27%
2.45
6+ Goals
16%
5.19
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.94
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
23.95
1/X
6%
12.25
X/1
17%
5.65
X/2
13%
6.76
X/X
6%
6.32
2/1
6%
20.6
2/2
17%
3.87
2/X
9%
12.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.95 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.5pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.4pp
39%
Away Win
33%
+5.9pp
37%
Under 2.5
33%
+4.1pp
63%
Over 2.5
67%
-4.1pp
62%
BTTS Yes
68%
-5.5pp
38%
BTTS No
32%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macarthur EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle Jets EU Bookmakers 37%
-8% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +8%
1.91/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.77
+0% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
19 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
354 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 79%
31.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
29.1 Crosses 17.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macarthur
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Newcastle Jets
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
2.56 xG 1.61
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 4
349 Passes 368
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
32 Box Touches 26
30 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.02.2026 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 1-0 HT 0-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
26.12.2025 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 4-5 HT 1-2 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
28.03.2025 Macarthur Macarthur 3-3 HT 0-2 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
12.01.2025 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 1-3 HT 1-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
25.10.2024 Macarthur Macarthur 1-2 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
25.02.2024 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 2-2 HT 0-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macarthur
3-2
AWAY Newcastle Jets
1.25 xG 1.41
47% Ball Possession 53%
17 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 6
283 Passes 346
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
40 Box Touches 31
38 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macarthur nicked a narrow win over Newcastle Jets 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 21% / 39% — and on the day Macarthur made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (62%) came in.

On the day, Macarthur had 47% of the ball to Newcastle Jets's 53%, shots finished 17-15, expected goals 1.25 to 1.41.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Macarthur and 2.17 for Newcastle Jets.

What was the final score of Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets?

Macarthur 3-2 Newcastle Jets in the Australia - A-League on 02/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets?

Before kick-off our model rated a Macarthur win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Macarthur 40%, draw 21%, Newcastle Jets 39%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Macarthur), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Macarthur) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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