Den Bosch 1-0 Helmond Sport — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 2 May 2025

📅02/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.18
Over 2.5
54%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.22
2-3 Goals
41%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
2.83
6+ Goals
12%
8.17
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.71
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
5%
12.5
X/1
16%
5.08
X/2
10%
7.67
X/X
11%
5.46
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.0
2/2
12%
5.15
2/X
8%
13.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.0 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
47%
+1.1pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
27%
Away Win
27%
+0.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.2pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Den Bosch EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 31%
+3% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -23%
1.50/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.42
+9% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
372 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 78%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
18.2 Crosses 17.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Den Bosch
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Helmond Sport
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.73 xG 1.22
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
345 Passes 350
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.12.2024 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 0-0 HT 0-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
02.02.2024 Den Bosch Den Bosch 0-0 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
18.08.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-0 HT 1-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
14.04.2023 Den Bosch Den Bosch 1-2 HT 1-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
16.12.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-0 HT 0-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
06.05.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-1 HT 0-1 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Den Bosch
1-0
AWAY Helmond Sport
1.49 xG 1.13
44% Ball Possession 56%
18 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 2
288 Passes 398
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
39 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Den Bosch nicked a narrow win over Helmond Sport 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Den Bosch as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Den Bosch had 44% of the ball to Helmond Sport's 56%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.49 to 1.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Helmond Sport led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Den Bosch and 0.83 for Helmond Sport.

What was the final score of Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport?

Den Bosch 1-0 Helmond Sport in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 02/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport?

Before kick-off our model rated a Den Bosch win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Den Bosch 48%, draw 24%, Helmond Sport 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Den Bosch) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Den Bosch) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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