MVV Maastricht 1-0 Ajax II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 2 May 2025

📅02/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.12
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
34%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.61
Over 2.5
58%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.39
No
44%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.83
2-3 Goals
39%
2.05
4-5 Goals
25%
2.48
6+ Goals
14%
5.31
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.97
1/2
9%
25.0
1/X
7%
12.3
X/1
14%
5.73
X/2
12%
6.99
X/X
10%
6.32
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.1
2/2
13%
4.05
2/X
5%
12.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.1 — our 10% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
43%
+0.6pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.9pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+1.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
35%
+7.5pp
58%
Over 2.5
65%
-7.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
68%
-12.2pp
44%
BTTS No
32%
+12.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax II EU Bookmakers 37%
+4% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -16%
1.88/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.61
+41% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -24%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
317 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 82%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
15.3 Crosses 13.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MVV Maastricht
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Ajax II
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.41 xG 1.47
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
283 Passes 494
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
22 Box Touches 32
11 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
19.08.2024 Ajax II Ajax II 0-0 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
12.02.2024 Ajax II Ajax II 3-0 HT 2-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
01.09.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-1 HT 2-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
20.02.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 4-2 HT 2-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
16.09.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 4-1 HT 2-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
29.04.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-0 HT 1-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MVV Maastricht
1-0
AWAY Ajax II
1.33 xG 0.54
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 5
334 Passes 384
86% Pass Accuracy 89%
24 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 12
POST-MATCH MVV Maastricht vs Ajax II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MVV Maastricht squeezed past Ajax II 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had MVV Maastricht as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, MVV Maastricht had 48% of the ball to Ajax II's 52%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 1.33 to 0.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, MVV Maastricht had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for MVV Maastricht and 1.50 for Ajax II.

What was the final score of MVV Maastricht vs Ajax II?

MVV Maastricht 1-0 Ajax II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 02/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MVV Maastricht vs Ajax II?

Before kick-off our model rated a MVV Maastricht win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split MVV Maastricht 44%, draw 22%, Ajax II 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (MVV Maastricht) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (MVV Maastricht) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL2 More Netherlands - Eerste Divisie
2 May 2025
21:00 FC Oss vs Vitesse Analysis →
21:00 FC Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar II Analysis →
21:00 Utrecht II vs Dordrecht Analysis →
21:00 Volendam vs Roda Analysis →
21:00 Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport Analysis →
21:00 Emmen vs VVV-Venlo Analysis →