Excelsior 5-0 PSV II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 2 May 2025

📅02/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.22
Draw
20%
6.26
Away
17%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under
35%
3.94
Over Pick
65%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.63
No
42%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1
17%
9.42
2-3
34%
2.52
4-5
30%
2.26
6+
19%
3.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.34
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
5%
23.3
X/1
18%
4.23
X/2
5%
25.0
X/X
9%
12.45
2/1
9%
17.6
2/2
8%
18.65
2/X
6%
27.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 17.6 — our 9% vs market 3.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 65%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
63%
Home Win
78%
-14.4pp
20%
Draw
13%
+7.3pp
16%
Away Win
9%
+7.1pp
35%
Under 2.5
22%
+13.5pp
65%
Over 2.5
78%
-13.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
57%
+0.9pp
42%
BTTS No
43%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior The Market 82%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV II The Market 12%
-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -3%
2.11/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/2.05
-3% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
389 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 77%
34.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
24.8 Crosses 12.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
3W-1D-2L
AWAY PSV II
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.50 xG 1.09
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
306 Passes 419
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.10.2024 PSV II PSV II 1-3 HT 0-3 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
21.01.2022 PSV II PSV II 3-0 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
24.09.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 3-0 HT 1-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
02.04.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 0-0 HT 0-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
29.08.2020 PSV II PSV II 1-6 HT 0-2 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
27.01.2020 PSV II PSV II 2-1 HT 0-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
5-0
AWAY PSV II
1.67 xG 0.27
50% Ball Possession 50%
22 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 3
276 Passes 296
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
40 Box Touches 9
27 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Excelsior vs PSV II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior swept aside PSV II 5-0. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Excelsior as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (65%) landed while both teams to score (58%) missed.

On the day, Excelsior had 50% of the ball to PSV II's 50%, shots finished 22-6, expected goals 1.67 to 0.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Excelsior had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Excelsior and 1.17 for PSV II.

What was the final score of Excelsior vs PSV II?

Excelsior 5-0 PSV II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 02/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior vs PSV II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 63%, draw 20%, PSV II 16%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Excelsior), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Excelsior) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL2 More Netherlands - Eerste Divisie
2 May 2025
21:00 FC Oss vs Vitesse Analysis →
21:00 FC Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar II Analysis →
21:00 Utrecht II vs Dordrecht Analysis →
21:00 Volendam vs Roda Analysis →
21:00 Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport Analysis →
21:00 MVV Maastricht vs Ajax II Analysis →