.png)
Libertad (Ekvador) vs Aucas Prediction — Model Probabilities
Libertad (Ekvador) v Aucas — Team-Based Signals
Libertad (Ekvador) vs Aucas Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
_small.png)
Libertad (Ekvador) found just enough to beat Aucas 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. A 5-goal game — the defences never settled.
A gentle 53% lean on Aucas didn't survive contact with the match; margins like that flip all the time.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 51%, coin-flips both. If anything the market was more convinced: the under-2.5 price stood at 1.75, roughly 57%.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Libertad (Ekvador) had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.17 a game for Libertad (Ekvador) against 1.33 for Aucas.
Libertad (Ekvador) vs Aucas Result & Final Score
Libertad (Ekvador) 3 - 2 Aucas in the Ecuador - Premier on 02/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Libertad (Ekvador) vs Aucas Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated an Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Libertad (Ekvador) 20%, draw 27%, Aucas 53%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aucas), Under 2.5 went the other way.