Guingamp 0-1 Bastia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 2 May 2026

📅02/05/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
2.97
2-3 Goals
42%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
3.51
6+ Goals
8%
14.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.97 — our 29% vs market 26.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.3pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.3pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.5pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guingamp EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Bastia EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -10%
1.36/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.10
+13% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
353 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 77%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
20.0 Crosses 17.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guingamp
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Bastia
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.34 xG 1.20
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
285 Passes 264
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.08.2025 Bastia Bastia 1-3 HT 0-2 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
02.05.2025 Guingamp Guingamp 2-2 HT 1-1 Bastia Bastia FR2
13.12.2024 Bastia Bastia 3-1 HT 0-1 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
20.04.2024 Guingamp Guingamp 0-1 HT 0-1 Bastia Bastia FR2
28.10.2023 Bastia Bastia 0-0 HT 0-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
18.02.2023 Bastia Bastia 1-1 HT 1-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guingamp
0-1
AWAY Bastia
0.91 xG 1.67
69% Ball Possession 31%
9 Total Shots 11
0 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
477 Passes 156
84% Pass Accuracy 62%
12 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 11
POST-MATCH Guingamp vs Bastia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bastia nicked a narrow win over Guingamp 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Guingamp at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Guingamp had 69% of the ball to Bastia's 31%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 0.91 to 1.67.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bastia led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Guingamp and 1.33 for Bastia.

What was the final score of Guingamp vs Bastia?

Guingamp 0-1 Bastia in the France - Ligue 2 on 02/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guingamp vs Bastia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guingamp win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Guingamp 41%, draw 27%, Bastia 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Guingamp), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Guingamp) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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