Fagiano Okayama 1-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 2 May 2026

📅02/05/2026 · 🕒06:55 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.04
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
48%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.91
Over 2.5
43%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.28
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.23
6+ Goals
9%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 29% vs market 23.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
6%
X/2
20%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
22%
+1.4pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.8pp
48%
Away Win
54%
-6.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.0pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 58%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -23%
1.19/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/0.97
-5% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -9%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
281 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 421 · 81%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.1
21.3 Crosses 24.9
0.7 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fagiano Okayama
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.60 xG 1.30
33% Ball Possession 67%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
170 Passes 418
67% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 0
14.02.2026 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 HT 1-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP
05.07.2025 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 0-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
12.04.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-1 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
1-0
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fagiano Okayama nicked a narrow win over Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 45% of the ball to Sanfrecce Hiroshima's 55%, shots finished 12-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 0.67 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Fagiano Okayama 1-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the Japan - J1 League on 02/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 23%, draw 29%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 48%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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