Once Caldas 1-0 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 2 May 2026

📅02/05/2026 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.47
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
47%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.03
Over 2.5
46%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
17%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
23%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
37%
-7.7pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.2pp
47%
Away Win
37%
+9.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
45%
+8.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
55%
-8.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.5pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 40%
-8% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
1.17/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.08
-13% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
305 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 78%
16.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
19.3 Crosses 13.1
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.63 xG 1.61
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
254 Passes 426
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
9 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
23.10.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-0 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOLK
10.10.2025 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOLK
12.07.2025 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-3 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
20.06.2025 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
02.06.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
26.01.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 4-0 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Once Caldas
1-0
AWAY Atletico Nacional
1.43 xG 1.47
45% Ball Possession 55%
17 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 4
290 Passes 365
87% Pass Accuracy 88%
19 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Once Caldas nicked a narrow win over Atletico Nacional 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Nacional at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Once Caldas had 45% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 55%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.43 to 1.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Once Caldas and 2.00 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?

Once Caldas 1-0 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 02/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 29%, draw 24%, Atletico Nacional 47%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Nacional), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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