Once Caldas 1-2 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 20 Jun 2025

📅20/06/2025 · 🕒02:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
3.29
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
37%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.95
Over 2.5
41%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.7
No
56%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
16%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
27%
+9.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
37%
Away Win
47%
-9.6pp
59%
Under 2.5
48%
+11.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
52%
-11.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
55%
-11.0pp
56%
BTTS No
45%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 50%
+8% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
1.04/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/0.97
-11% / +82% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -15%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
282 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 80%
16.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
17.0 Crosses 13.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.61 xG 1.29
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
245 Passes 356
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
10 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.06.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
26.01.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 4-0 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
28.07.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-0 HT 2-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
02.02.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 1-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
17.07.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
27.01.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Once Caldas
1-2
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.90 xG 1.21
51% Ball Possession 49%
7 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
362 Passes 363
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
12 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional squeezed past Once Caldas 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 26% / 37% — and on the day Atletico Nacional made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Once Caldas had 51% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 49%, shots finished 7-15, expected goals 0.90 to 1.21.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Once Caldas and 1.17 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?

Once Caldas 1-2 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 20/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Once Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 37%, draw 26%, Atletico Nacional 37%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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