Once Caldas 1-3 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 12 Jul 2025

📅12/07/2025 · 🕒04:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.5
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
40%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.71
Over 2.5
36%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.9
No
60%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
21%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
25%
+6.9pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
40%
Away Win
48%
-8.3pp
64%
Under 2.5
55%
+9.4pp
36%
Over 2.5
45%
-9.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
49%
-8.9pp
60%
BTTS No
51%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 52%
+5% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
1.03/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/0.93
-9% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -14%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
264 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 80%
15.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
17.2 Crosses 14.2
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.67 xG 1.32
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
226 Passes 360
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
10 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
20.06.2025 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
02.06.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
26.01.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 4-0 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
28.07.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-0 HT 2-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
02.02.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 1-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
17.07.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Once Caldas
1-3
AWAY Atletico Nacional
1.14 xG 1.31
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
283 Passes 458
86% Pass Accuracy 88%
10 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 16
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional saw off Once Caldas 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Atletico Nacional made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Once Caldas had 39% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 61%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 1.14 to 1.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Once Caldas and 1.33 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?

Once Caldas 1-3 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 12/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 32%, draw 28%, Atletico Nacional 40%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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