Once Caldas 0-1 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Cup, 10 Oct 2025

📅10/10/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
34%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.75
Over 2.5
43%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.76
No
57%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.7pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.3pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-1.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.7pp
57%
BTTS No
47%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 39%
-39% / -39% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.17/2.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.32
+5% / -58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / -14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
333 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.71 xG 1.38
39% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
235 Passes 400
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
10 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
12.07.2025 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-3 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
20.06.2025 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
02.06.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
26.01.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 4-0 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
28.07.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-0 HT 2-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
02.02.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 1-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional edged past Once Caldas 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 34%) promised a tight game; Atletico Nacional found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Once Caldas and 1.67 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?

Once Caldas 0-1 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Cup on 10/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Once Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 38%, draw 27%, Atletico Nacional 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Once Caldas) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Once Caldas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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