Ümraniyespor 1-4 Keçiörengücü — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 2 May 2026

📅02/05/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.71
Draw
18%
4.19
Away
57%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.29
Over 2.5
54%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
12%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
37%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
18%
+7.3pp
18%
Draw
21%
-3.0pp
57%
Away Win
61%
-4.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
40%
+6.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
60%
-6.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.0pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Keçiörengücü EU Bookmakers 66%
-8% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
0.89/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.69/0.74
-23% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +150%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
308 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 81%
15.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.1
15.8 Crosses 15.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ümraniyespor
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Keçiörengücü
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.30 xG 1.15
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
392 Passes 279
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.12.2025 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 3-1 HT 2-0 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
20.04.2025 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 0-1 HT 0-0 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
15.12.2024 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-2 HT 1-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
28.04.2024 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 4-2 HT 4-1 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
09.12.2023 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 2-0 HT 1-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
19.04.2022 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 2-1 HT 2-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ümraniyespor
1-4
AWAY Keçiörengücü
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 9
7 Corners 1
377 Passes 368
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
POST-MATCH Ümraniyespor vs Keçiörengücü
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Keçiörengücü cruised past Ümraniyespor 4-1 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Keçiörengücü as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Ümraniyespor had 51% of the ball to Keçiörengücü's 49%, shots finished 15-19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Ümraniyespor and 1.67 for Keçiörengücü.

What was the final score of Ümraniyespor vs Keçiörengücü?

Ümraniyespor 1-4 Keçiörengücü in the Turkey - 1st Division on 02/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ümraniyespor vs Keçiörengücü?

Before kick-off our model rated an Keçiörengücü win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Ümraniyespor 25%, draw 18%, Keçiörengücü 57%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Keçiörengücü), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Keçiörengücü) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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