Sacramento Republic 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 2 Jun 2024

📅02/06/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.8
Over 2.5
42%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.16
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.72
6+ Goals
8%
15.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 32% vs market 26.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
13%
X/X
18%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-4.6pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.6pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+3.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.1pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 34%
+4% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -12%
1.80/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.32
+48% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +39%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
326 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 78%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
15.2 Crosses 13.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sacramento Republic
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.58 xG 1.23
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
403 Passes 329
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 4
04.06.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-1 HT 1-1 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sacramento Republic
0-1
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
0.58 xG 2.85
52% Ball Possession 48%
6 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 10
1 Corners 8
393 Passes 349
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 29
15 Crosses 31
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sacramento Republic vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tampa Bay Rowdies nicked a narrow win over Sacramento Republic 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 28% / 34% — and on the day Tampa Bay Rowdies made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Sacramento Republic had 52% of the ball to Tampa Bay Rowdies's 48%, shots finished 6-20, expected goals 0.58 to 2.85 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Tampa Bay Rowdies's control.

What was the final score of Sacramento Republic vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Sacramento Republic 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship on 02/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sacramento Republic vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 38%, draw 28%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sacramento Republic) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sacramento Republic) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
USLP More USL Championship
2 Jun 2024
02:00 Miami FC vs Louisville City Analysis →
02:00 Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island Analysis →
02:00 Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Indy Eleven Analysis →
02:00 Loudoun United vs FC Tulsa Analysis →
04:00 San Antonio vs Memphis 901 Analysis →
04:00 El Paso Locomotive vs Birmingham Legion Analysis →