CA Penarol vs Progreso Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
CA Penarol v Progreso — Team-Based Signals
CA Penarol vs Progreso Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
CA Penarol
URU
1-0
HT 0-0
Progreso
URU
CA Penarol 2-1 Progreso — Actual Match Statistics
CA Penarol nicked a narrow win over Progreso 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, CA Penarol had 68% of the ball to Progreso's 32%, shots finished 14-6.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for CA Penarol and 0.50 for Progreso.
What was the final score of CA Penarol vs Progreso?
CA Penarol 2-1 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 02/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for CA Penarol vs Progreso?
Before kick-off our model rated a CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split CA Penarol 63%, draw 23%, Progreso 14%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.