St. Johnstone 4-3 Kilmarnock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 2 Aug 2026

📅02/08/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.9
Over 2.5
43%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.73
No
54%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.25
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.39
6+ Goals
10%
13.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 31% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.72
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
15%
4.71
X/2
10%
7.34
X/X
12%
4.7
2/1
8%
24.35
2/2
11%
5.42
2/X
9%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-4.3pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
49%
+8.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
51%
-8.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.9pp
54%
BTTS No
46%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Johnstone EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -3%
1.20/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.44
-27% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
256 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 72%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
24.3 Crosses 22.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Johnstone
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Kilmarnock
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.24 xG 1.64
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
313 Passes 188
73% Pass Accuracy 60%
18 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.05.2025 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone 0-2 HT 0-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
15.02.2025 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 3-1 HT 1-0 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone İKP
23.11.2024 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone 1-0 HT 0-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
11.08.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 0-3 HT 0-2 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone İKP
13.04.2024 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone 0-2 HT 0-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
23.12.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-1 HT 2-0 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Johnstone
4-3
AWAY Kilmarnock
1.76 xG 0.79
15 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
446 Passes 328
28 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Johnstone nicked a narrow win over Kilmarnock 4-3. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had St. Johnstone as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 1.76 to 0.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kilmarnock led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for St. Johnstone and 1.50 for Kilmarnock.

What was the final score of St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?

St. Johnstone 4-3 Kilmarnock in the Scotland - Premiership on 02/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Johnstone win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split St. Johnstone 43%, draw 28%, Kilmarnock 29%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Johnstone) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (St. Johnstone) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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